In several past federal elections NSW has usually been a crucial state with many swinging seats but in 2019 it’s taking a back seat. Despite this there are several interesting contests to watch and chief amongst these is the electorate of Gilmore on the South Coast of NSW (Lib 0.07%). The seat is the most marginal for the Liberals in the state and the retiring member and all former coalition members have endorsed the Nationals candidate over the Liberals Warren Mundine. Ouch!
Keep an eye on Lindsay (Lab 1.1%) in Western Sydney where Labor’s sitting MP is retiring following controversies in her office. The suburban Sydney seat of Reid (Lib 4.7%) will interesting to watch – the margin is quite high (due to the popularity of the retiring member) and if the seat swings towards Labor sharply, it could spark larger worries for the Coalition in NSW
Two other seats to watch are Robertson on the central coast (Lib 1.1%) and the country seat of Farrer (Lib 20.5%), the second largest in the state. It’s not expected that Farrer will change hands on May 18, but the rural vote is a key demographic of interest at this election, primarily because of the recent NSW state election, which saw a swing to the Shooters Farmers and Fishers away from the Coalition. The issue of water rights and management of irrigation plans is red hot in these communities.
Let’s also not forget the seat of Wentworth (Ind 1.1%) where an Independent faces a tough challenge from a Liberal and Warringah (Lib 11.1%), where a Liberal faces a tough challenge from an Independent!