There are several important contests in Victoria at this election and a change of government could happen based on seat changes in the state alone.
Two key seats to watch are Corangamite (notional Lab 0.03%) and Dunkley (notional Lab 1.0%). These seats were won by the Liberal party in 2016, but are now notionally Labor due to the redistribution in 2018 which made room for the new electorate of Fraser. Both major parties need just four seats to win, so these ones will be frequently visited by both leaders. The electorate of La Trobe is also in play (Lib 3.2%).
Labor are confidant that they will pick up several seats in this state, mainly due to larger than expected swings towards them in last November’s state election. The party won several state electorates that it didn’t expect to, which overlap the federal seats of Deakin (Lib 6.4%) and Aston (Lib 7.4%).
Keep an eye on these seats during election night – if they fall into Labor hands early on, it might be a indication that a swing away from the government is on.
Finally, Greg Hunt is in trouble in the seat of Flinders as he also sits in an area that swung to hard Labor last November. This, together with Liberal defector and high profile independent Julia Banks standing against him, and a large presence on the ground of lobby groups like GetUp!, who are reminding the public of his involvement in the leadership spill last year, make this a big mountain to climb for him.